Archive for the ‘NFL Draft’ Category

24 Apr

Ryan’s Mock Draft 2.0

Posted by Ryan Craig in Mock Drafts, NFL Draft. Tagged: , , , , .

This is our web site’s first solo mock draft so it will be a little different than some of our previous mock drafts.  As always I would like to thank Walter Football for their support.

  1. Indianapolis – Andrew Luck – He has been the #1 pick in the NFL draft for at least 15 months.
  2. Washington – Robert Griffin III – Maybe I am going way out on a limb here, but I don’t think that the Redskins traded four picks to get Matt Kalil…call me crazy.
  3. Minnesota – Matt Kalil – Kalil just makes sense for the Vikings.  They have a young and talented QB with Ponder and they need to protect his blindside, especially in a highly competitive NFC North.  More to the point, the Vikes seem to be attempting to restock their team with young top tier talent at key positions. This selection fills both of those requirements.
  4. Cleveland – Michael Floyd WR – I have heard the theory that Holmgren does not take WRs early in the draft, but I do not think he has a choice.  However, I think he will take the safer of the two big WR prospects in this draft.  Floyd’s upside is not as high as Blackmon’s, but neither are his chances of being a bust.  Floyd is a big target with good hands that will be a red zone threat from day one.
  5. Tampa Bay – Justin Blackmon WR – The consensus is that Tampa Bay will either take Claiborne or Richardson with this pick.  However, I think Blackmon is too good to pass up.  The ability to develop what could be one of the next great WRs of the NFL alongside the recently signed Vincent Jackson would be tantalizing.  In addition, the positional value of a WR would well exceed that of a CB or HB. Continue reading »

13 Apr

Ryan Tannehill and the Stability of Ireland’s Regime

Posted by Ryan Craig in Dolphins, NFL Draft. Tagged: , , , , , , .

In a recent discussions regarding the Miami Dolphins possible selection of Ryan Tannehill at #8, or via an earlier pick obtained by a trade, NFL Draft analyst Mike Mayock was recently quoted as saying “The whole key obviously is you’ve gotta be right about (Tannehill). You miss that one this whole regime is gone. ”

I think that Mayock’s point was spot on.  While it has become popular to predict that the Miami Dolphins will select Tannehill in the first round of the upcoming NFL Draft the situation is more complicated.  An element that is commonly left out from these predictions is the impact that this selection will have on both newly hired head coach Joe Philbin and embattled general manager Jeff Ireland.  While there would certainly be a grace period for Philbin and Tannehill, if it became apparent to Dolphin’s nation that Tannehill was a flop it would seem unlikely that that either Philbin or Ireland would be able to retain their jobs.

I realize this seems like an oversimplification, but allow to put forward my reasoning.  For it to become apparent that Tannehill is a bust it means that the Dolphins have struggled to win games with either  Matt Moore or David Garrard.  This struggle resulted in the switch to Tannehill.  If Tannehill struggles to win games also or generally shows a lack of promise then Philbin will be labeled as a failure.  Ireland in turn will be viewed as pandering to the desires of the fans for quarterback when he reached to select Tannehill at #8 (or possibly #3).  At which point Stephen Ross will have no choice but to cut ties with the whole regime and start anew.

As such, I believe that the biggest road block to the Dolphins selecting Tannehill in the top 10 is Jeff Ireland because he cognizant of the very reality I alluded to above.  Moreover, Ireland must also realize that his draft resume will dictate not only his ability to retain his current job, but also acquire future jobs, and he will not want a desperate reach for Tannehill to stain his otherwise pristine drafting reputation.  I do not think you can talk about the Dolphins drafting Ryan Tannehill without at least discussing what it means for men like Ireland and Philbin because they will in essence be married to him and their jobs will be interlinked with Tannehill’s success or failure.

11 Apr

Mike Sando and the Dolphins trading up to #3

Posted by Ryan Craig in Dolphins, News, NFL Draft. Tagged: , , , , , , .

“The new wage scale for top draft choices has led some to suggest teams will be more interested in trading into the top few spots from lower in the first round. ESPN’s Bill Polian advocated this position in his latest column Insider. He sees the QB-needy Dolphins having little choice but to make a strong play for Tannehill, which could mean leaping past Cleveland, owner of the fourth overall choice, for that opportunity.”  Mike Sando – NFL  Blogger ESPN – NFC West

I am at a loss in regards to how to respond to this.  Personally, I think that it would be a travesty for the Miami Dolphins to use the #8 overall selection on Ryan Tannehill because he is a second round prospect.  I know every day analysts and sports reporters alike are jumping on the Tannehill band wagon primarily because of his “upside” and the quarterback starved nature of this league.  However, Tannehill is not a first round prospect on tape and a good pro day and a nice 40 yard dash time do not change that.  So entertaining a slew of mock drafts that project Tannehill going to the Dolphins is hard enough.

As for the prospect of trading up to #3 to select Tannehill, I think I would struggle to continue to be a Dolphins fan if this trade occurred.  To label such a move as utter desperation does not quite encapsulate the situation.  To put it in context, following the NFL draft pick value chart, the dolphins would need to give up the #8 pick, #42, #74, and #104 which means that it would require all of their picks in the first four rounds of the draft, except the pick the third round pick they got for Brandon Marshall, in order to accumulate 2,205 values points as the #3 selection is valued at 2,200, and who knows the Vikes may want more than that, the Rams did.  How could anyone ever justify that for a guy who is a second round talent?  Moreover, how could a writer even entertain this as a theory?

I realize this was an “if” comment on a blog so I should imagine it as a group of buddies sitting around a camp fire drinking some beers and shooting the shit and it shouldn’t be taken too seriously.  However, it is a blog on ESPN and one would hope that at the least plausible theories would be put forward.   To make matters worse I still think Sando is a far superior blogger than AFC East blogger James Walker.  To call his posts and analyses superficial would be kind.  Come on ESPN you can do better than this.

5 Apr

Ryan Tannehill to the Dolphins at #8?

Posted by Ryan Craig in NFL Draft. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , .

The vast majority of NFL mock draft project that the Miami Dolphins will select Ryan Tannehill of Texas A&M with #8 selection in the draft.  Mel Kiper Jr. recently changed his mock draft which now has Tannehill going to the Dolphins at #8 as well, he was one of the last significant hold outs amongst NFL draft analysts.  The commonly stated reasons for the dolphins selecting Tannehill at the #8 spot are his relationship with the dolphins new offensive coordinator Mike Sherman, the need of the Miami Dolphins organization to make up for the disappointing free agency period, the desire of the organization to appease the incensed Miami dolphins fans, and the general belief that if Christian Ponder can go that high then Ryan Tannehill could as well.

I am part of a small group of people who not only oppose this move but believe that it is unlikely.   The following are my reasons.

First off,  Tannehill is a second round prospect, pure and simple.  Some people have tried to convince themselves he is one of the top 25 talents in this draft, but those people are not watching game tape.  Moreover, everyone acknowledges that Tannehill would be a reach for the Dolphins at #8.

Second, a past relationship with a dolphins coach does not equate to the team overpaying or reaching fora player, just ask Matt Flynn.  If, a guy  that spent 4 years developing with Miami Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin could not get more than a 4 million dollar a year contract from the phins then why would a kid that has a relationship with the offensive coordinator necessitate a reach? The answer is that he wouldn’t.

Third, Jeff Ireland in my opinion has been a good drafter for the Miami Dolphins, in large part because he has made good safe picks in the first round with low bust potential like Jake Long, Vontae Davis, Jared Odrick, and Mike Pouncey.  It does not seem logical for him to all of a sudden change that philosophy just because the fans are upset.

Finally, Ryan Tannehill will not be able to beat out Matt Moore and/or David Garrard this year, and the only way he would make it on the field is if the dolphins struggled.  As raw as Tannehill is, I am not convinced that he will be able to beat out either or those guys in his second year either.  So what we would have is a #8 draft pick that cannot get on the field.  To look at the other side of the coin, if the dolphins struggled in year one and Tannehill was called up to start and his performances were uninspiring causing phin fans to lose faith in Tannehill then calls for both Philbin and Ireland’s heads would begin to rain down, and I think they know this.

An alternative: Instead of reaching for Tannehill in the first, pick another player and see if he falls to the second round.  I believe that this possibility is much more likely than most fans think.  If he ends up getting picked then we draft someone else like Cousins, Weeden, Foles, or Osweiler.  If the phins suck next year then we might be in prime position to draft a quarterback who is worthy of a first round top 10 selection like Matt Barkley, Laundry Jones, or Tyler Bray next year.  If we don’t suck, then well we don’t suck.  Ryan Tannehill at #8 is a short sided selection that I think that only hurts the team down the line and I am opposed to it and moreover I do not think the phins will do it.

29 Mar

5 Players that Could Tumble on Draft Day

Posted by Ryan Craig in NFL Draft. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

  1.  Ryan Tannehill – I have seen mock drafts that have Tannehill going to the Browns at #4 and others that have him going to the Dolphins at #8.  People are convinced that teams love to reach for quarterbacks, but I would caution that for every Christian Ponder there is a Brady Quinn, Aaron Rodgers, or Jimmy Clausen that sit as a cautionary tale of how QBs can fall.  The reality is that Tannehill is raw, very raw and he needs to get better at numerous facets of the game if he is to succeed in the NFL.  If neither the Browns nor the Dolphins  falls in love with this kid’s potential he could not only fall out of the first round but out of the second round as well, because beyond the Browns and Dolphins, and excluding the Colts and Redskins, there is no other team with a strong need of drafting a quarterback in the first two rounds of the draft.  Also, a strong argument could be made that Brandon Weeden makes more sense for the Browns and Kirk Cousins more sense for the Dolphins.  In terms of what they do on the field and where they can be selected in the draft.  Continue reading »

24 Mar

Ryan’s 2012 NFL Draft Big Board

Posted by Ryan Craig in NFL Draft. Tagged: , , , , , , , , .

Ryan’s Big Board

This big board does not reflect where I think players will get drafted rather how I perceive their chances of succeeding in the NFL.

  1. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford – Simply put, Luck is the best QB prospect since John Elway.
  2. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama – Richardson would be the starter for 27 out of 32 NFL teams right now.  The five exceptions are Minnesota, Houston, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Chicago.  No other prospect in this draft can boast that.
  3. Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU – This kid could be the next Deion Sanders.  He is as natural at CB as I have ever seen in college.
  4. Robert Griffin III – There is a ton to like about this kid, but the gap between him and Luck is a lot bigger than many like to acknowledge.  Griffin needs to improve his throwing mechanics, his footwork, and he needs to learn a pro system.
  5. David DeCastro, G, Stanford – DeCastro is the best offensive linemen in this draft, and arguably the best prospect at guard since Steve Hutchinson.  He is an excellent run and pass blocker, but he will fall out of the top 10 because of his position.  Continue reading »
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.